Local businesses still optimistic, poll finds
March 3, 2009
Winnipeg Free Press
Written by: Martin Cash
POPULAR wisdom -- or is it urban myth -- has been saying for some time that Manitoba is in a good position to weather the global economic downturn.
Now there is evidence that local business owners and operators really believe that to be true.
The most recent Manitoba Business Leaders Index produced by Probe Research shows that 73 per cent of the 200 business leaders contacted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 19 believe that Manitoba is in good shape compared to other provinces.
However, the survey, which Probe has been conducting for several years, also shows a distinct decline in the level of optimism among the province's business leaders.
"I think business leaders are optimistic by personality," said Scott McKay, president of Probe Research. "To get them to be negative is not within their basic character. You can see, though, that they are shifting and not oblivious to what is going on around them."
Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce president Dave Angus agreed.
"Business is international in focus," he said. "They see what is happening around the world and they are going to be a little more nervous and cautious about their level of optimism moving forward."
Only 30 per cent of business leaders said they expect their company to be performing better financially in the next 12 months compared with 57 per cent last year, and 19 per cent said they believe they will be expanding their staff this year compared with 30 per cent last year.
Considering that the country will soon be officially in a recession, it's not surprising that business is less bullish.
Wilf Falk, director of the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, said average forecasts from the banks and think-tanks that regularly publish forecasts has Winnipeg growing by 0.8 per cent in 2009, compared to the national average of -0.7 per cent.
But McKay said even though the business leaders index has taken an obvious downward turn, the positives have not all turned into negatives.
"Fewer believe they are going to expand their staff this year, but they are not all planning to cut staff," McKay said.
In fact, the vast majority -- 71 per cent -- said they believed their staff size would stay the same this year. Only eight per cent said they expect to cut staff, up slightly from five per cent last year, but exactly the same as the year before that.
And even while layoff announcements across North America seem to be daily occurrences, 54 per cent of Winnipeg business owners are still concerned about the availability of skilled workers. It's down from 66 per cent last year, but still a major concern for businesses.
"We are hearing that it remains an issue for a number of organizations," Angus said. "We need to continue to focus on training and skills so that when the economy starts to turn again, we are hoping we will be in a better position to address the skills issue because of some of the work that we do at this time."
The results do put some further stock in the whole concept about how well this diversified economy works in a downturn.
"I think this stability within the economy is very marketable," Angus said. "I think a lot of organizations through these troubling times will be open to looking at (Winnipeg) with its more stable economic environment."
The survey of 200 people makes the results accurate within plus or minus 6.9 per cent of what they would be had the entire population of the province's business leaders been surveyed.
martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca |
